Ridley Scott is a legendary director, if ever there were such a thing. From all-time classics like “Alien” to Oscar-winners like “Gladiator,” he can do it all. That’s why Scott is one of the highest-grossing directors ever at the box office. So, can the man work his magic once again on “The Dog Stars” when it opens next weekend? Unfortunately, barring what would equate to a modern miracle, it’s looking like Scott’s post-apocalyptic sci-fi flick will end the summer on a disappointing note.
As of this writing, Disney and 20th Century Studios’ “The Dog Stars” is expected to pull in between $18 and $23 million domestically when it arrives in theaters next weekend, per Box Office Pro. On the surface, for a non-franchise post-apocalyptic drama with science fiction elements, that’s not bad. The problem is that Scott doesn’t make cheap movies, and this one carries a reported $110 million budget, meaning it needs to make blockbuster money to justify its existence.
Scott’s latest will be opening against “Coyote vs. Acme,” with the live-action/animated feature having secured a release date following its controversial cancellation thanks to the folks over at Ketchup Entertainment. The “Looney Tunes” movie is expected to do between $12 and $18 million. There’s also “Idiots,” but that will be a non-factor with an expected $2 million debut.
The good news is that “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” will finally be winding down its record-breaking run by then. As will Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” with the blockbuster having only just passed “Deadpool & Wolverine” to become the biggest R-rated box office success ever (with $1.34 billion to its name). The bad news is that current projections are still soft, meaning Scott’s film is going to need a lot of help beyond its first weekend.
The Dog Stars is going to need a lot of help to avoid becoming a flop
“The Dog Stars” centers on Hig (Jacob Elordi), a young pilot who, alongside a military survivalist named Bangley (Josh Brolin), has carved out an efficient but isolated homestead in a brutal post-apocalyptic world. However, everything changes when a mysterious radio transmission spurs Hig to venture into the unknown in search of the hope and humanity he still believes exists. The cast also includes Margaret Qualley (“How to Make a Killing”), Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), Benedict Wong (“The Martian”), and Allison Janney (“Mom”).
Elordi is certainly becoming a movie star after starring in the box office hit “Wuthering Heights” and the Oscar-winning “Frankenstein.” But will his involvement here motivate people to get off the couch? The current projections don’t indicate so. Even with its impressive ensemble, “The Dog Stars” lacks A-list, butts-in-seats names. Very strong reviews will be needed to help move the needle.
What “The Dog Stars” needs is a lot of help from overseas audiences, as well as long legs domestically. It will have to make at least $275 million worldwide for Disney to consider it a theatrical success. Then again, maybe this is something the studio’s expecting to play bigger on Hulu. “Death on the Nile” was one of the biggest box office flops of 2022, yet it got a sequel in the form of “A Haunting in Venice.”
That could be the case here, too. Rather than make a needlessly expensive direct-to-streaming movie, perhaps Disney decided to see what it could do in theaters to offset the endeavor. But if these projections hold, that’s the kind of rationale the Mouse House is going to have to embrace to justify this one commercially.
“The Dog Stars” reaches theaters on August 28, 2026.
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