The following article is an excerpt from the new edition of “IndieWire’s The Lead Up,” a weekly newsletter in which our Awards Editor Marcus Jones takes readers on the awards trail, interviewing key figures responsible for some of the most compelling stories of the season, and offering predictions on who will win. Subscribe here to receive the newsletter in your inbox each week.
Have we wrapped on one of the best seasons of television in history? No. But did it offer some incredibly laudable shows that, whether they debuted, concluded, or kept chugging along, are represented among the nominees for the 2026 Emmys? Of course.
As the last of Television Academy members are turning in their ballots, determining which of the dozens of nominees deserve some greater recognition in the form of an Emmys statuette, me and our TV Critic Ben Travers are planting our flags one last time. As Awards Editor, I will be determining what series I think are most likely to win the Emmy for each category listed below, while Ben will tell us all which nominee we should have actually been watching all along — hopefully, in time for voters to give it one last look.
Keep in mind, the format does not disqualify us from having picks that are one in the same, but isn’t it more entertaining to be in an awards year where the answers are not so uniform, or even predictable?
See which shows IndieWire thinks will win and/or should win at the 78th Emmy Awards, which airs Monday, September 14 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on NBC and Peacock from the Peacock Theater at L.A. LIVE. —Marcus Jones
Outstanding Comedy Series
- “Abbott Elementary”
- “The Bear”
- “Hacks”
- “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
- “Nobody Wants This”
- “Only Murders in the Building”
- “Shrinking”
- “Widow’s Bay”
Will Win: While “Widow’s Bay” has the kind of awards momentum studios would pay millions to obtain, coming out of the final weekend before voting started I can’t shake the feeling that TV Academy members have come around to honoring the final season of “Hacks” instead. Between star Jean Smart, an unassailable frontrunner for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series, being inducted into the Television Academy Hall of Fame and performing in character live at the Fonda Theatre in Hollywood, HBO’s campaign has done a great job of building up instant nostalgia for the show right at the awards finish line.
How the creators of the HBO Max series also talk about “Hacks” as if it is the last of a dying breed in terms of pure comedies is a winning talking point in my eyes. It certainly worked for them when it won Outstanding Comedy Series against the highly decorated “The Bear” Season 2 in 2024. —MJ
Should Win: Helping “Hacks,” in my mind, is that there are a lot of good shows nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series and not a lot of great shows. “Abbott Elementary” and “Only Murders in the Building” are category stalwarts lacking a stand-out season. “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” is very good, but its whole vibe is “awards bait,” and that shouldn’t be rewarded at this level. (I’d support a Nick Offerman win, though.) “The Bear” is officially nominated for Season 4, which wasn’t great, although it’s still better than weak entries of “Nobody Wants This” and “Shrinking.” (I know I’m alone on the latter series, but come on: Harrison Ford is the only element separating “Shrinking” from standard Bill Lawrence fare, like “Rooster.”) That leaves the two frontrunners: “Hacks” and “Widow’s Bay.” So I’ll go with “Widow’s Bay,” if only to spice up our list. (And it would be nice to see Emmy voters reward originality, which might encourage studios to take more risks.) —Ben Travers
Outstanding Drama Series
- “The Diplomat”
- “The Gilded Age”
- “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
- “Paradise”
- “The Pitt”
- “Pluribus”
- “Slow Horses”
- “Your Friends and Neighbors”
Will Win: Of course, I too have feelings on what show should win the Emmy, but this is an instance where I need to hold my tongue on that front because it would be borderline irresponsible of me to suggest anything besides Emmy nominations leader “The Pitt” will win Outstanding Drama Series. If I’m being completely honest, I did not get much of an impression that Television Academy members watched any dramas at all this season besides the reigning champ from HBO Max, as well as freshman Apple TV series “Pluribus” and Hulu hit “Paradise.” But what sinks the latter two shows is that voters still seem to be resistant toward honoring works of science-fiction. Not counting “The Handmaid’s Tale,” which is technically speculative fiction, the last sci-fi show to win the Emmy in this category was “Lost” in 2005. —MJ
Should Win: I want to make one thing clear — OK, two things, but this thing first: “The Pitt” Season 2 is very good television. It may even be better than the first season (although I was admittedly softer on the original run than most). The minor controversies that popped up across the latest 15-week shift clouded the critical consensus a bit, but that’s what happens when a critical favorite becomes a huge mainstream hit: Everyone’s watching, everyone has an opinion, and the people paid to share their opinions are working overtime.
So when “The Pitt” wins, that’s just fine. But obviously, as a TV critic, I have to throw my official support behind “Your Friends and Neighbors.”
Kidding! I just wanted to make sure everyone was still reading. While Jon Hamm’s Apple series did improve in Season 2 — credit where’s it’s due: James Marsden kills it — it wasn’t enough to merit an Emmy nomination in the main drama category (especially when that’s the only nomination it got). No, if the TV Academy respected critics enough to let us vote, I’d be casting my ballot for “Pluribus.” Great show. Important show. And, equally key, a fun show! —BT
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- “All Her Fault”
- “The Beast in Me”
- “Beef”
- “DTF St. Louis”
- “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
Will Win: Oh me of little faith. I do think HBO’s emotionally impactful mystery “DTF St. Louis” has a real chance of winning the Emmy, and it would be an exciting, inspiring choice. But I was once again warned by an awards strategist that sometimes Emmy voters go on autopilot. Sure, “Beef” Season 2 was not the hit that its Emmy-winning predecessor was, but it does have both recency bias and familiarity among voters going for it. I’m also very comfortable saying it was good! Netflix is on a three-year winning streak in this category, and although I can see there being voters who are more passionate about “DTF St. Louis,” I feel like that group is smaller than I’d hope it’d be. —MJ
Should Win: Marcus, it sounds like you don’t really need me to explain why “DTF St. Louis” should win, and I’m frankly a big fan of “Beef” Season 2, as well, so as long as it’s one of these two shows, the voters did well. Every other option? Bad! Don’t vote for those! Use your head, people!
What tips “DTF” into MVP territory is a common refrain in this article: originality. Some critics complained that Steven Conrad’s limited series felt like two different shows awkwardly forced together: a murder-mystery and a domestic drama (with a heaping dose of black comedy in both). But once you know the whole story, it’s clear Conrad was using each genre to deconstruct the other: The detectives are a literal embodiment of neighbors’ prying eyes, while the murder sets the proper stakes for the central trio’s life-or-death relationship decisions. It comes together beautifully, so long as you watch with an open mind, and for as much as “Beef” works on a grander, generational level, the intimacy of “DTF” sets it apart. —BT
Outstanding Variety Series
- “The Daily Show”
- “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
- “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
- “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
- “Saturday Night Live”
Will Win: Since this is just about what will win the category, I will spare you all from me hopping on my soapbox about how the politics of this category has slowly but steadily contributed to the death of late-night television. Ultimately, it’s really great that there is a world in which all five nominees could win, as voters do not have to only choose one, they just have to go down the list of five and check off every nominee they think is worthy of an Emmy. The one(s) that get a 90 percent approval rating or above will receive a statuette.
From everyone I have talked to, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” would still win under previous circumstances. This being the final season of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” also tips the CBS classic toward winning a second Emmy in a row. Finally, the fracas with the FCC last fall that nearly ended “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” last September has seemingly garnered the ABC series enough favor in the long run to win its first Emmy for Outstanding Variety Series. While it would be crazy to count out both “The Daily Show” and “Saturday Night Live,” which are Emmy winners several times over, those are the two nominees I hear the least passion for amongst voters. —MJ
Should Win: Well, now I want to hear your tirade over Emmy categorization, Marcus! But in my mind, while working under the parameters assigned by the TV Academy, the best move for voters is to choose four winners: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (duh), “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (still rips), “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (duh again), and “The Daily Show” (which is also still quite good). Denying “SNL” a trophy on the grounds of continuously declining quality is correct, but the real argument would be to send a message (as much as the Emmys can) that late-night TV is worth celebrating. All four nominated late-night shows are doing great work. All face an existential threat. So all four should get their trophies. —BT
Outstanding Reality Competition Program
- “Dancing with the Stars”
- “RuPaul Drag Race”
- “Survivor”
- “Top Chef”
- “The Traitors”
Will Win: I understand the outrage around the fact that the Outstanding Reality Competition Program category would not exist without the success of “Survivor,” yet the CBS series has never won. But the conversation around its 50th season did not position the innovative originator in a way that has made it feel like this will finally be the show’s Emmy moment. It just made the phrase “Billie Eilish Boomerang Idol” ring through my head for a couple weeks. “The Traitors” is the safer bet for the fact alone that the season it’s nominated for includes some of the most popular cast members of all time from all four of the other shows it’s nominated against, including “Top Chef” host Kristen Kish. It’s the main reality competition program bringing all types of reality competition program fans together. —MJ
Should Win: “The Traitors” is one of the worst-produced reality shows I’ve seen, especially the American original, but Season 4 (aka the Rob and Maura season) hides many of those flaws with a well-balanced cast led by a genuine hero. It wasn’t just a hate-watch, but a compelling pleasure. Still, I’ll go with “Top Chef” as the top pick — “The Traitors” shouldn’t win again until it banishes the reality stars that plague too many iterations, “Survivor” made too many mistakes in its 50th season, and “Dancing with the Stars”? No way. “RuPaul” has 29 Emmys to “Top Chef’s” two, so let’s honor the less-honored, no? —BT
See IndieWire’s full list of 2026 Emmy predictions, complete with frontrunners, contenders, and long shots on our website. As a reminder, my email is majones@indiewire.com if you’d like to share any feedback.
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