I was out of town two weekends ago, but I didn’t miss any Earth-shattering, record-breaking opening weekend at the movie theaters, did I? I guess there was this little film called “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” that seems to be doing pretty well. We’re all about championing small movies that need a leg up here at IndieWire.
But yes, the fourth “Spider-Man” has obliterated box office records and is already among the highest-grossing films of all time. After opening to a whopping $360 million, “Brand New Day” has now made $655 million domestic, including $144.5 million this weekend, bringing its global cumulative total to $1.67 billion in just 12 days.
A few highlights and accolades you may have already heard: it’s the biggest gross in 10 days in domestic history. Internationally it’s behind only “Avengers: Endgame” as the fastest to $1 billion. The $144.5 million second weekend is the third-highest haul ever behind only “Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens” and “Endgame.” Domestic, it’s already the 10th highest grossing movie of all time. And it’s the biggest opening since Tom Holland and Zendaya were officially unofficially confirmed to be married. (I made that last one up.)
But here’s something that no movie has accomplished to date: “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” has a chance to be the first movie to surpass $1 billion domestic.
Let’s set aside factoring for inflation, because “Gone With the Wind” is still the GOAT by a huge margin if you do, and “Brand New Day” would only crack the Top 50 at this point, but with room to grow. But to date, no film domestic has surpassed $1 billion. The closest any film has come is “The Force Awakens” with $936 million out of $2.07B globally. “Endgame” topped out at $858M against $2.8B globally.
So could it get there? “Endgame” is probably the best comp of those two movies to “Brand New Day,” and “Endgame” had a very similar Weekend 2 drop to “Brand New Day.” That would suggest “Spider-Man” would fall short. But “Endgame” opened in April and had to compete with a whole summer’s worth of movies, including not coincidentally, another “Spider-Man” movie, 2019’s “Far From Home.” “Brand New Day” doesn’t face nearly as many barriers, including other superhero movies, even though August is a historically quieter period at the box office and kids are going to be returning to school imminently.
But “Endgame” wound up with a multiple of 2.4 from its opening to its final domestic gross. “Brand New Day” needs something closer to 2.77 from its $360 million start to get all the way to $1 billion. The last “Spider-Man” movie, “No Way Home” from 2021, wound up 3.13 times above what it initially grossed, topping out at $814.8 million, currently the third highest grossing movie ever domestic. It opened around the holidays, so it’s not apples to apples, but if “Brand New Day” approximates those numbers, it could reach $1 billion with a little room to spare. “The Force Awakens” ended up with a multiple of 3.77 and still didn’t get all the way to $1 billion, but it didn’t open as high as “Spider-Man” did.
You could also argue that “Endgame” surged much higher based on its international total, bringing in 70 percent of its overall gross from overseas markets, while “Brand New Day” is at roughly 60 percent international as it stands. That could level out more, but if “Brand New Day” is performing better at home relative to abroad, it could be a sign of greater strength that could get it to $1 billion.
Whatever it ends up being, it’s a seismic total, buoyed by the ever-growing star power of Holland and Zendaya, as well as the 5-year gap Sony put between these sequels. Between “Spider-Verse,” “Venom,” “Madame Web,” and “Spider-Noir,” it’s not as if there’s been a dearth of “Spider-Man” content, but scarcity makes the heart grow fonder all the same.
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