Well, it looks like the power dynamics in Westeros have shifted once again. SPOILERS ahead for House of the Dragon Season 3, Episodes 1 and 2. After House of the Dragon Season 3, Episode 2, Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen now sits upon the Iron Throne — but how does she compare to King Aegon II and Prince Aemond in terms of power? The Dance of the Dragons pits Rhaenyra and Aegon against one another for most of its run, with Aemond also making a power play for the crown in House of the Dragon‘s more recent episodes. And Rhaenyra’s recent ascension is unlikely to stop her half-brothers from pursuing her claim. They may be dealing with other problems currently, but they’ll undoubtedly try to retaliate when the time is right.
With more Targaryen in-fighting on the horizon, it’s worth looking at how House of the Dragon‘s three main contenders compare to one another. At the moment, Rhaenyra seems to hold most of the cards, though that can change in a just a few battles. And Aegon and Aemond do have one advantage that Rhaenyra doesn’t…though she may be on the way to obtaining it after killing Otto Hightower in “Queen’s Landing.”
Rhaenyra Targaryen Has More Dragons Fighting for Her Than Her Brothers (but Aemond Has Vhagar)
With the tides of the Targaryen civil war changing on the battlefield, the person in possession of the most dragons is obviously in a position of power. That’s why Rhaenyra recruiting the dragonseeds and making new dragon riders is such a crucial development in House of the Dragon Season 2. At present, she’s currently the more powerful opponent on that front. She and Daemon have Syrax and Caraxes fighting for them, and they also have Moondancer and Baela, Seasmoke and Addam, Vermithor and Hugh, and Silverwing and Ulf. The dragons and riders may range in terms of experience and strength, but the numbers are on Team Black’s side.
The Greens only have three dragons currently: Vhagar, Dreamfyre, and Tessarion. Vhagar and Aemond are powerful opponents, as the former is the strongest dragon around during House of the Dragon Season 3. But we’ve yet to meet Daeron Targaryen’s dragon, Tessarion, and Dreamfyre doesn’t get out much, since Helaena doesn’t fly her. If it comes down to a fight between dragons, the Blacks are probably winning. It’s a massive point in Rhaenyra’s favor.
Rhaenyra’s Forces Are Larger…but Possibly Depleted and Less Well Equipped?
Dragons win battles, but so do armies — and it seems like Rhaenyra’s prevailing on that front as well. The Battle of the Gullet may deplete the Velaryon fleet, but it also sees the Triarchy facing major losses. Neither side is poised to win a sea battle any time soon, but Rhaenyra’s armies on land appear to have the numbers. At the beginning of House of the Dragon Season 3, Episode 2, Alys Rivers tells Daemon that she gave them 40,000 Rivermen. That’s no small number, and it’s not accounting for the Winter Wolves and anyone else pledged to Rhaenyra’s cause. It’s unclear if Alys is referring to the forces before or after the off-screen Battle by the Lakeshore. That’s a bloody one in Fire & Blood, so if Alys’ numbers precede the fight, they’re certainly a bit lower now.
Of course, if Rhaenyra’s armies have seen losses, that’s also true for the Greens. The Lannister host suffers major defeats at the start of Season 3, and Criston Cole’s party doesn’t seem much better off. Lord Ormund Hightower is the only one with well-equipped, fresh forces still intact. However, he’s said to have 15,000 men behind him, and that’s a significantly smaller army than Rhaenyra’s. Ormund’s host does appear to have better lodgings, armor, and equipment, though, which counts for something. Still, it’s hardly enough to make up for tens of thousands of extra men.
As Her Father’s Heir, Rhaenyra Has the Better Claim (but She’s Still a Woman)
Of the three potential rulers for Westeros, Rhaenyra has a more powerful advantage on the battlefield. She also has a better claim to the Iron Throne. After King Viserys I makes her his heir in House of the Dragon Season 1, there’s no denying she’s the rightful queen. As viewers, we also know what Viserys is talking about when he tells Alicent of the Song of Ice and Fire prophecy — and that he never actually changes his mind. So, Rhaenyra’s the one with the proper claim, but that doesn’t change a harsh reality she faces in remaining queen: that she’s a woman.
As Rhaenys warns her in Season 1, “Men would sooner put the realm to the torch than see a woman ascend the Iron Throne.” Even with Rhaenyra’s better forces and claim, she’ll have to fight for respect throughout her reign. That’s not something that Aegon II or Aemond have to deal with. And misogynistic men who will never support a woman on the Iron Throne will rally behind them regardless. Whether that’ll be enough to remove Rhaenyra remains to be seen. But there is something else that could challenge her, even after taking King’s Landing.
Aemond and Aegon II Still Have One Advantage That Rhaenyra Doesn’t
In addition to their gender, Aegon and Aemond have one other thing going for them that Rhaenyra doesn’t: their ruthlessness. In a change to Fire & Blood, House of the Dragon makes Rhaenyra a far more sympathetic character. Even after she kills Otto and ascends the throne — clearly accepting the hard choices that come with ruling — she’s gutted over what it takes to get there. It’s possible House of the Dragon will push her toward being the brutal leader described in George R.R. Martin’s book. However, it’s looking less and less likely as the show continues.
And unfortunately for Rhaenyra, her half-brothers don’t have the same compassion or desire to play fair. They’ll do whatever it takes to survive and reclaim their power, and that makes them a continued threat to her crown. They shouldn’t be underestimated as we head into the remainder of House of the Dragon Season 3.
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