What separates the Emmys from the other letters of the EGOT, the Mt. Rushmore of prestigious awards, is that the Television Academy allows for ongoing programs to remain in contention, often leading to much of the same folks winning year after year. Look at shows like “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” or “RuPaul’s Drag Race” or “Veep” for some recent examples.
Despite being considered TV’s biggest night, the winners being so predictive has contributed to the live awards ceremony often having low viewership. How does any network get the audience excited to watch the same faces accept their third, fourth, or fifth award for the same show and same category?
Well, to remedy this situation, in anticipation of the 2026 Primetime Emmy Awards nominations being announced on Wednesday, July 8, we’ve decided to highlight a few categories to keep an eye on. Some tell a story of the TV season we just had, some represent possible Emmy records being broken, but all are relatively unpredictable in a way that draws one closer to the edge of their seat.
Outstanding Drama Series
If the Limited or Anthology Series categories see new nominees come in every year by design, and the Comedy Series categories see much of the same nominees every year because they tend to be cheaper to produce and air in time for Emmys eligibility, the Drama Series categories fall somewhere in between. Yes, there are shows like “Paradise,” “The Pitt,” “Slow Horses,” and “The Diplomat” that have made it their mission to come back right on schedule, on an annual basis, but overall, half of last year’s Drama Series nominees are out of contention, with only one being fully over. It costs a lot to create a series like any of the “Game of Thrones” shows, for example, and get them all out within a year.
All this to say, there is a lot of room for new shows to break into the Outstanding Drama Series category, but not many certified hits both on a commercial and critical level to be a shoo-in. Let’s say those four aforementioned series that were nominated last year come back, what else makes it in? Apple TV’s “Pluribus” is the only new series that checks all the boxes. Has it been too long a hiatus for “Euphoria” or “Stranger Things” to break back into the category with their farewell seasons? Even diving into the range of contenders HBO alone has, which would nearly fill up all the nomination slots, are we sure voters prefer the more commercial new series “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” or the more prestigious new drama “Task”?
We are leaning toward the idea that HBO will get in five nominees, breaking the record for network/streaming service with the most programs nominated in one category in a single year, but another long shot bet people are making is that voters will finally acknowledge one of the massively popular Taylor Sheridan shows, which would be a first for Paramount+ as a whole. “Landman” is the more likely choice, but “The Madison” is the other possibility.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Further past the complaint that the Emmys nominate the same people over and over again, there have more frequently been complaints in recent years about one or two shows taking up all the slots in the Supporting performance races. Voters are watching enough comedies to spread the wealth, and dodge those allegations for the most part, though “The White Lotus” alone serves as an example for how true that has been of both the Limited or Anthology Series categories and the Drama Series categories.
In the case of “The Pitt,” there just aren’t enough supporting actors on the show to really complain about a monopoly in the Supporting Actor in a Drama Series category. It’s just Emmy winner Shawn Hatosy and breakouts Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell, whose chances of being nominated are in the order. The Emmys race is much tighter for the women of the HBO Max series.
In addition to last year’s winner Katherine LaNasa being the most likely nominee, and overall favorite to win again, there are as many as six more viable contenders from the series that are in contention for the category this year. Were they to all be nominated, it would take up all seven Supporting Actress in a Drama Series nomination slots that are available this year.
And what makes it viable for any more of them to be nominated is how there are really only two safe bets from other shows, “Pluribus” breakout Karolina Wydra and two-time Emmy-winning “Paradise” star Julianne Nicholson, who was nominated last year, breaking into the race. Many predict perennial Emmy winner Allison Janney will make it in as well for “The Diplomat,” but she was one of the most egregious snubs last year for the same role.
If “The Pitt” manages to dominate the Supporting Actress category come nominations day, another Outstanding Drama Series is all but expected for the medical drama. But if it underperforms, with only newcomer Sepideh Moafi joining LaNasa among the ranks of Emmy nominees, there is a clearer pathway for another series like “Pluribus” to overtake “The Pitt” in some Emmy categories.
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Unfortunately, this is a big year for posthumous Emmy contenders. Eric Dane is a major one on the Drama side for his appearance in the final season of “Euphoria,” but the Comedy Series categories notably have both Rob Reiner in contention for “The Bear,” a show that has won plenty of guest performance Emmys, and the late prolific TV director James Burrows for “The Comeback,” a show he’s spent the last two decades making memorable cameo appearances on.
For several reasons, including the one noted above, as well as more upsetting reasons, Reiner is by and large the favorite in a category predicted to include several big Emmy-winning names like Jeff Daniels and Michael J. Fox as well (both for “Shrinking”). But “Saturday Night Live” almost always has a presence in this category, and many believe voters will find it too irresistible to not nominate Connor Storrie for his turn as host of the variety series staple, as a way to highlight his meteoric rise from “Heated Rivalry” (which is ineligible at the Primetime Emmys as a Canadian production).
Outstanding Reality Competition Program
The Outstanding Reality Competition Program is often cited as one of the most rigid categories. After all, it was established in 2003, and yet there have only been six shows that have won the category so far. But there are some very intriguing narratives in play after the genre of TV went through a renaissance this year. Basically, though “The Traitors” has had a chokehold on the category the past two seasons, the biggest question is whether or not the landmark 50th season of OG reality competition “Survivor” has become popular enough to earn its first ever Emmy win in the category.
There is also the matter of if there is room for only one food show. Host Padma Lakshmi departed “Top Chef” after Season 20 to pursue her own TV projects. While the Bravo series did not miss a beat, with her replacement Kristen Kish even earning an Outstanding Host Emmy nomination for her first season on the job, Lakshmi is now back in the fray with the freshman series “America’s Culinary Cup.” CBS, the network it airs on, has the most wins in this category, for its series “The Amazing Race,” the most perennial of nominees, so the network knows how to campaign the show. But what it lacks in comparison to “Top Chef,” which also happens to be the most key component to “The Amazing Race” is the travelogue aspect. So the incumbent “Top Chef” likely has the advantage.
But speaking more toward the reality competition renaissance, both “Dancing With the Stars” and “Love Island USA” saw a record amount of viewers this season, deep into the runs of their shows, so there really are some dark horses in this race that could make the cut against the predictions of many.
Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Many people look at the Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) as just the category for comedy specials, but if anyone were to actually take a look at the ballot, the breadth of candidates for a nomination is a lot more expansive. For example, amid specials from marquee standups like Dave Chappelle, Wanda Sykes, and Nikki Glaser are “The Muppet Show,” “Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show,” “Wicked: One Wonderful Night,” and even the “Las Culturistas Culture Awards.”
So while traditional comedy specials appear on the ballot with much more frequency, there is a good chance the ratio of nominees that are comedy specials versus a different type of variety special could be more equitable. Which comedians are nominated could be very telling as well. For example, though they are not seen as major contenders in the Comedy Series performance categories, this could be a space for “Saturday Night Live” stars Sara Sherman and Marcello Hernández to shine.
The 2026 Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Wednesday, July 8 at 11:30 a.m. ET/8:30 a.m. PT.
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