Huge 2026 Hit Set to Topple 23-Year-Old Classic Best Picture in Major Box-Office Battle

2026 has been a big year at the box office. Several releases — including Michael, which became the first biopic to cross $1 billion worldwide — have already reached the kind of global totals that would define an entire year on their own, with multiple films pushing well past that mark and a few, like Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, climbing toward even rarer territory. In a year that crowded, one of the biggest hits on the board has drawn a little less attention than its numbers might suggest.

That is somewhat surprising given that it is a Toy Story movie. The fifth installment in the Pixar franchise has been a steady earner, and if its current pace holds, it should pass one of the most celebrated Best Picture winners ever on the all-time worldwide chart within days. The film in its sights is The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Peter Jackson’s 2003 trilogy capper finished its original run with roughly $1.15 billion worldwide against $387 million domestic, totals that later re-releases have nudged along, and it remains the only fantasy film to win Best Picture, sweeping all 11 of its Academy Award nominations to tie Ben-Hur and Titanic for the most Oscars ever.

‘Toy Story 5’ Is Closing In on a Major All-Time Box Office Milestone

Toy Story 5 currently sits at $1.137 billion worldwide, per Box Office Mojo, with $479 million of that domestic, meaning it has already cleared Jackson’s film in North America by a comfortable margin and needs only a modest final push overseas to finish the job globally. Given that the movie is still playing in theaters heading into the fall, that push seems more likely than not. That being said, comparing grosses across a 23-year gap is inevitably a little unfair.

Ticket prices have nearly doubled since 2003, and on an inflation-adjusted basis, The Return of the King still stands far above most modern releases. But raw milestones remain part of how the industry measures these things, and this one would cap a run that has been quieter than its actual performance suggests. Andrew Stanton’s sequel opened to $310.2 million globally, the biggest debut in Pixar history. Backed by a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score, it has also become the first major franchise to see five consecutive mainline entries each outgross the last.

Pixar’s Latest Sequel Has Been a Steady Global Hit

Rather than continuing the saga with another Woody and Buzz two-hander, Stanton and co-writer Kenna Harris shifted the focus to Joan Cusack’s Jessie and built the sequel around a premise that feels more current. Bonnie’s toys are forced to face the fact that a frog-shaped tablet called Lilypad is taking their place, as a generation of kids is increasingly drawn to solitary screen time.

For a reported $250 million bet on a franchise many assumed had already reached a natural ending — first with Toy Story 3 and then again with Toy Story 4 — the film’s run looks like a fairly strong answer to any doubts about whether audiences wanted a fifth installment. Whatever happens on the chart, The Return of the King will almost certainly remain one of the defining benchmarks for franchise finales long after the rankings shift again. Toy Story 5 will likely be passed by something else in time, as most films on these charts eventually are.